A long time ago, in the United States, we could all argue whether the United StatesS.
Global influence is declining.
Now, most observers have no doubt that ending is only a matter of time and environment.
Ten years ago, I predicted that the power of the United States would end by 2025,
Controversial comments are common today.
Under the leadership of President Donald Trump, the "indispensable nation" that once won World War II and established a new world order became indispensable.
Of course, the decline and decline of American global power have nothing special in history.
After all, in the 4,000 years since the formation of the first human empire in the new moon fertile soil, the Empire rose at least, collided with other imperial powers, and collapsed in time.
In the past century alone, more than 20 modern imperial countries have fallen and the world has lived well after their demise.
When the massive Soviet empire collapsed in 1991, the global order did not change, and it released 15 "republics" and 7 "satellites" to become 22 new capitalist countries.
Washington has largely responded calmly to this epoch-making event.
In ancient Roman tradition, there were no victorious demonstrations, Russian prisoners with scabs and their looted treasures marched along Pennsylvania Avenue.
It's a Manhattan family.
Real estate developers bought 20-
At the foot of the Berlin Wall displayed near Madison Avenue, busy shoppers barely noticed the scene.
For those who are trying to track global trends for the next decade or two, the real problem is not the fate of American global hegemony,, the future of the world order was established at its peak of power, not in 1991, but after World War II.
Over the past 75 years, global rule in Washington has been built on "subtle duality.
The original real politics of America. S.
Military bases, multinational corporations, CIA coups and foreign military intervention were balanced and even softened by a surprising free world order ---
Sovereign states hold a conference on equality at the United Nations, an international rule of law to ease armed conflict and a World Health Organization that actually eradicated epidemics that plague generations of humanity, A development effort led by the World Bank has lifted mankind out of poverty.
Some observers still have great confidence that Washington's world order can withstand the relentless erosion of its global power.
Political scientist at Princeton
John ikenbury, for example, basically put his reputation on this controversial proposition. As U. S.
For the first time in 2011, it was realized that the United States's ability to shape world politics would diminish, but that "a free international order would continue to exist and flourish", which retains the core elements of multilateral governance, free trade and human rights.
Seven years later
Nationalists around the world, he is still optimistic that the United States-
Because international issues such as climate change have made its vision of "interdependent and cooperative change, the world order has been maintained. . .
With the development of the century is more important.
This cautious optimism is widespread among foreigners.
Policy elite in New York
Washington power corridor.
Richard Haas, chairman of the influential foreign relations committee, usually thinks "after
The Cold War order cannot be restored, but the world is not yet on the brink of a systemic crisis.
Through clever diplomatic means, Washington can still save the Earth from "deeper chaos" and even "the trend to bring disaster.
But is it true that the decline of the "only superpower" on earth is true?
Because it was once known)
It will not shake the current world order as the collapse of the Soviet Union once did, to explore what is needed to produce the collapse of such a world order, and it is necessary to turn to history ---
In fact, in history, the order of the empire collapsed and the Earth changed constantly.
Admittedly, such an analogy is always imperfect, however, what other future guidelines do we have other than the lessons of the past: the world order is far more fundamental than we thought, their eradication requires the perfect storm of the most powerful force in history.
In fact, the question now should be whether climate change is now gathering enough destructive forces to weaken Washington's free world order and for Beijing's absolutely unliberal world, it may even be a new world in which, despite the aura of awe
They sent out inspiring powers, and the Empire was often a short-lived product of a personal conqueror like Alexander the Great or Napoleon, and quickly disappeared after his death or defeat.
By contrast, the world order is deeply rooted.
They are a resilient global system of economic, technological and ideological forces.
On the surface, they need diplomatic relations between countries, and at a deeper level, they need the culture, business and values of countless societies.
The world order affects the language people speak, the laws they live in, and the way they work, worship, and even play.
The world order is woven by civilization itself.
To root them up requires an extraordinary event, even a global disaster.
Looking back on the past millennium, when a disaster marked by a mass death or devastating Whirlpool occurs at the same time as some slow but comprehensive social change, the old order will die, the new order
Since the beginning of the 15 th century European exploration era, about 90 empires have come and gone.
In the same century, however, there were only three major orders in the world ---
The Iberian era (1494-1805)
The age of the British Empire (1815-1914)
And the Washington world system (1945-2025).
This global order is not just the imagination of historians trying to impose some logic on the chaotic past decades or centuries later.
These three Great Powers-
Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States--
Consciously try again
They hope to sort their world by formal agreement ---
The Tordesillas Treaty of 1494, the Vienna Congress of 1815, and the San Francisco Conference on drafting the US Constitution. N.
Charter on 1945.
If Beijing replaces Washington as the world's most prominent power, future historians may look back at the Belt and Road Forum, which brought 130 countries to Beijing in 2017, the official beginning of the Chinese era.
Each of these treaties shapes a world in the most basic way, setting out universal principles that will define the nature of the state and the rights of all in the coming decades.
During this time of 500, the three worlds order was reviewed as an ongoing debate on the nature of human rights and the limitations of state sovereignty on large areas of the Earth.
In their scattered land, the world order has become a competitive alliance, even a contradictory social force. -
Different nationalities, different countries, different classes.
In cleverly balanced situations, such a system can survive for decades, or even centuries, by incorporating those forces that fight each other into a broad common interest.
However, as tensions escalate into contradictions, disasters in the form of war or natural disasters can trigger long-brewing conflicts ---
Allow challenges from competitors, resist the social order of subordinates, or both.
The Iberian people have risen rapidly in the past millennium, and the first of these transformative disasters is undoubtedly a Black Death of 1350 people, one of the largest waves of large-scale death from diseases in history, the virus was transmitted in Europe by mice carrying infected lice from Central Asia.
In just six years, 60% of the population in Europe has been killed and about 50 million people have died.
As a smaller but still deadly epidemic, it recurred at least eight times in the next half of the time
This century, the world's population has fallen sharply from an estimated 0. 44 billion to 0. 35 billion, a collapse that will not fully recover in two centuries.
Historians have long believed that the plague caused a lasting labor shortage, cutting the income of feudal estates and forcing nobles to seek alternative income through war.
The result: a century of conflict between France, Italy and Spain.
But few historians have explored the broader geopolitical implications of this demographic disaster.
After nearly a thousand years, it seems to have ended the Middle Ages, its national system and relatively stable regional empire, while releasing the gathering power of commercial capital, maritime trade, in fact, military technology makes the world work.
When Tamerlane's cavalry swept across Central Asia, Ottoman Turks occupied Southeast Europe (
Also occupied the capital of the Byzantine Empire at 1453)
In a century-long exploration, the Kingdom of Iberian became an ocean.
Not only did they extend the growing power of the Empire to four continents (
Africa, Asia and America)
But they also created the first truly global order on a global scale, namely, mixed commerce, conquest and religious conversion.
Starting from 1420, thanks to advances in navigation and naval warfare, including the creation of the agilcaravelgunship, Portuguese sailors advanced south, bypassing Africa, and finally building more than 50 ports from Southeast Asia to Brazil.
This will enable them to dominate most of world trade for more than a century.
Later, the Spanish conquistors followed Columbus through the Atlantic and conquered the Aztec and Inca empires, which occupied an important part of the Americas.
Just weeks after Columbus completed his first voyage in 1493, Pope Alexander VI issued a statement granting permanent sovereignty to the Spanish royal family.
The Atlantic line, so "the brutal country was overthrown and brought [Catholic]faith.
He also affirmed the Bull of an early Pope.
This gives the Portuguese king the right to "subdue all sarassens and infidels" East of this line, "reduce their people to permanent slavery", "own these islands, land, ports, and the sea.
In order to settle in the place where the line was actually laid, Spanish and Portuguese diplomats held a several-month high-level meeting in the small city of todesiras in 1494.
Negotiation, a treaty has been created
The Christian world between them officially opened up the Iberian era.
In the broad definition of national sovereignty, the treaty allows European countries to acquire "barbaric States" by conquering them and to transform the entire ocean into an Oram enclosed ocean through exploration.
This diplomacy will also impose a rigid religion-cum-
It will last five centuries of apartheid against humanity.
Even if they reject Iberian global land plundering, other European countries have contributed to the formation of this unique world order.
French King Francis I usually asks "to see the terms in Adam's will, through which I should be deprived of my share in the world.
Nevertheless, he accepted the principle of European conquest and then sent Voyager Giovanni da vilazano to explore North America, claiming that France became Canada.
A century later, Dutch Protestant sailors left Singapore in spite of the Catholic Portugal 'smare clausumby detaining his merchant ship, and jurist Hugo grotiusaguedpersuasiely opened the high seas at 1609 treatiseMare (
"Freedom of the ocean ")
The ocean is like the Air "is infinite, it cannot be the property of anyone.
In the following 400 s, the diplomatic principles of the sea and the conquered colonies remained the foundation of the international order.
This decentralized global order, supported by commercial profits and inspired by the enthusiasm of missionaries, has surprisingly restored its vitality and survived for the entire three centuries.
However, by the beginning of the 18 th century, the authoritarian countries of Europe had fallen into destructive internal conflicts, especially the War of Spanish Succession (1701-1714)
Seven years of global war (1756-1763).
In addition, the Royal Charter-
UK, Netherlands and France-
By that time, these empires have proved less and less capable of effective colonial rule and less profitable.
After two centuries of rule, the French East India Company was liquidated for £ 1794, and its respected Dutch company closed down only five years later.
The final deadly blow to these absolutist regimes was caused by the American, French and Haitian revolutions that broke out between 1776 and 1804.
The age of the British Empire was born from the Napoleon war, which unleashed the transformative power of British industry and global financial innovation.
In the 12 years from 1803 to 1815, these wars proved to be a black death.
The whirlpool of style swept across Europe, leaving six millionaires and reaching India, Southeast Asia and the Americas.
When Emperor Napoleon was in exile, France had been deprived of many overseas colonies and had become a secondary position in Europe, while Spain, its former ally, was weakened, it will soon lose its Latin American empire.
Driven by turmoil and historic economic transformation, Britain suddenly did not encounter serious European rivals and found itself free to create and supervise a divided world order in which, sovereignty is only a right in parts of Europe and America, and most of the Earth is ruled by Empire.
Admittedly, compared to the destruction of the Black Death, the damage caused by the Napoleon war seems relatively mild, but for a long time
The changes in terms brought about by the British Industrial Revolution and financial capitalism have proved more convincing than earlier efforts by commercial companies and missionaries.
From 1815 1914 London presided over the to industrial, capital export and colonial conquer for sign of expanding of global system, all of these were eventually radio by railway, ship, Telegraph integration of the Earth.
Compared to the early weak Royal companies, this imperialism combines modern companies with direct colonial rule, enabling more efficient exploitation of local resources.
Therefore, it is not surprising that some scholars refer to the British ruling century as the "first era of globalization.
While British industry and finance are typical modern industries, its imperial age continues the key international principles of centuries, even if they are under the guise of a brutal secular era.
Although the Dutch theory of "freedom of the Sea" allowed the British Navy to rule the waves, the religious reasons for the earlier rule were replaced by a variety of ethnic ideologies, this ideology legalizes the efforts of Europe to conquer and colonize half of humanity, and the imperialist poet Rudyard Kipling
Although 1815 Vienna Congress officially opened the British era by eliminating France as a competitor, 1885 Berlin Africa Congress really defined this era.
As Portugal and Spain did in Tordesillas in 1494, 14 empires (
Including the United States)
Four centuries later, in Berlin, the entire continent of Africa was reasonably divided by claiming its identity.
Service commitments "oversee the protection of indigenous tribes and care about the improvement of their moral and material conditions --being.
As with the designation of Africans as "indigenous tribes" rather than "nations" or "peoples", their sovereignty and human rights are denied and, therefore, the British century has seen eight empires premised on ethnic inferiority, with nearly half of humanity under colonial rule.
However, only a century after Britain was founded, the latent contradictions in Britain's global rules broke out, thanks to two disastrous world wars and long-term
Colonial nationalism that builds our current world order.
It turned out that the alliance system between rival empires was unstable, and deadly clashes erupted again in 1914 and 1939.
To make matters worse, industrialism has spawned warships and airships as war engines of unprecedented scope and destructive forces, while modern science will also make nuclear weapons and have the potential to destroy the Earth itself.
At the same time, nearly half of the world's colonies refused to abide by the institutional denial of freedom, humanity and sovereignty that Europe cherishes for itself.
Although most of the 15 million fighters in World War I came out of the devastation of the front-line trench warfare in western France (
Millions of deaths worldwide due to the flu pandemic)
World War II spread around the world, killing 60 million people and ravaging cities in Europe and Asia.
With the recovery of Europe, its empire will no longer limit colonial calls for independence.
Just 20 years after the war ended, six European overseas empires that ruled much of Asia and Africa for five centuries gave way to 100 new countries.
After the most destructive war in history, the United States used its unparalleled strength to build the world system in Washington.
The number of American deaths in World War II was 418,000, but before Russia's 24 million deaths, China's 20 million deaths and Europe's 19 million deaths.
Industries in Europe, Russia and Japan have been destroyed, most parts of Eurasia have been destroyed, and the United States has found itself leaving a vibrant economy in the war, with only half of the world's industrial production capacity.
Most parts of Europe and Asia suffer from massive hunger, and the growth of the US agricultural surplus provides food to hungry humans.
Washington's visionary world order was formed in the Bretton Woods of New Hampshire in 1944.
There, 44 allies created an international financial system that followed the World Bank's example, and then in San Francisco in 1945, an international financial system was created by an American official. N.
Charter for the establishment of a community of sovereign states.
This new order is a striking blow to human progress, and it strongly opposes religious and racial divisions over the past five centuries and proposes in the United StatesN.
The Universal Declaration of Human Rights states that "the equal and inalienable rights of all members of the human family" and "should be protected by the rule of law.
"Within a decade after the end of World War II, Washington also has 500 overseas military bases across Eurasia and a range of NATO organizations from the North Atlantic (NATO)
Security Treaty of Australia, New Zealand and the United States (ANZUS), and a globe-
Teenage fleet of nuclear weapons
Warships and strategic bombers.
In order to exercise its version of global domination, Washington retains 17-
The Dutch theory of "freedom of the Sea" in the century later expanded it into space, and its military satellites have been orbiting unlimitedly for more than half a century.
Just as Britain's imperial system is more universal and powerful than Iberian's predecessor, the world order in Washington goes beyond both and becomes strictly systematic and deep in every aspect of planetary life.
While the 1815 Vienna General Assembly was a brief gathering of more than 20 diplomats whose influence had disappeared in a decade, the United Nations and its 193 member states, for nearly 75 years, maintain 44,000 permanent staff to oversee global health, human rights, education, law, labor, gender relations, development, food, culture, peacekeeping and refugees.
In addition to such broad governance, the United StatesN.
In addition, there are treaties designed to regulate the oceans, space and climate.
The Bretton Woods conference not only established a global financial system, but also contributed to the creation of the World Trade Organization, which manages business between 124 member states.
So, you can imagine that such a very comprehensive system that is almost integrated into all aspects of international communication can even survive major unrest.
Disasters and crashes however, there is growing evidence that, as climate change accelerates, it is laying the groundwork for the kind of disaster that can be shaken even by the deep-rooted world order.
The chain effect of global warming will be more obvious than in the distant future of 2100 (Like once thought
But in just 20 years, it has affected the lives of most living adults today.
American scientists in last OctoberN.
S. Inter-Governmental Committee on Climate Change released a "doomsday report," warning that humans have only 12 years to reduce carbon emissions by 45%, or the world temperature will rise by at least 1.
Above the pre-industrial level of 5 degrees Celsius, about 2040.
This, in turn, will lead to severe coastal flooding, growing storms, severe droughts, wildfires, and heat waves, which can add up to $54 trillion. -
Currently more than half of the global economy.
In the decades after that, without heroic measures, global warming would reach a dangerous level of 2 degrees Celsius, causing more damage.
In January, new data from scientists using advanced floating sensors reported that the heating rate of the world's oceans was 40% faster than estimated five years ago, triggering strong storms and frequent coastal flooding.
Sooner or later, due to the thermal expansion of existing waters, sea level may rise by a full 1 feet.
At the same time, it is reported that the rise in world temperatures has made the past five years the hottest five years in history. in 2017, it brought more powerful hurricanes and raging wildfires to the United States, total losses amounted to $306 billion.
The huge amount should be considered the lowest down payment in the future.
The melting of glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica will only exacerbate the effects of climate change.
Sea level is expected to rise by 8 inch by 2050, which could double coastal flooding in the tropical region-
Devastating effects on millions of people
Southeast Asian cities from Mumbai to Saigon and Guangzhou.
Melt water from Greenland has also damaged the "flip cycle" in the North Atlantic, which regulates the climate in the region and is destined to produce more extreme weather events.
At the same time, the Antarctic melt will capture warm water under the surface and accelerate the break
On the ice shelf in the Western Antarctic, sea level rose by 20 inch, up 2100. In short, a forever
In the coming decades, climate change is growing faster and faster, and it is likely to cause great damage to the infrastructure that sustains human life.
After 700, humanity could face another deadly disaster that could once again make the world work.
In the Mediterranean basin with a population of 0. 466 billion, the geopolitical impact of climate change is probably the most direct, where temperatures have reached 1 degree in 2016.
Above pre-3 degrees Celsius
Industrial level. (
The current global averagewas. 85 degrees. )
This means that the threat of devastating drought will be taken to a region of historic drought that is adjacent to the vast deserts of North Africa and the Middle East.
In a vivid example of how a climate disaster can destroy the entire world order, about 1200 BC, the eastern Mediterranean suffered a drought that "caused crop failures, lack and famine, "swept through the Late Bronze civilizations like the Greek city of myceny, the Hittite Empire, and the New Kingdom of Egypt.
From 2007 to 2010, continued global warming led to "the worst of the three --
Recorded drought years in Syrian history-
Triggered turmoil marked by "large-scale agricultural failure.
A devastating civil war that began in 2011 forced 5 million refugees to flee the country and 5 million people into urban slums.
In 2015, millions of migrants led by 350,000 Syrians poured into Europe, the European Union (EU)
Into a political crisis. Anti-
Immigration parties quickly gained popularity and power across the continent, while Britain voted for its chaotic Brexit.
Projecting the history of the Middle East, both ancient and modern, into the near future, the elements of the regional crisis with serious global impact are clearly present.
Just last month, the United StatesS.
The National Intelligence Commission has warned that "climate harm" such as "heat wave"and]
In Egypt, Ethiopia, Iraq and Jordan, the drought has exacerbated social unrest, immigration and interstate tensions.
"If we translate these sparse words into future scenarios, at some point before 2040, average global warming could reach a dangerous level.
5 degrees Celsius, the Middle East may experience a catastrophic level 2 warming. 3 degrees.
Such a strong high temperature will lead to a prolonged drought, much worse than the drought that destroyed those bronze-age civilizations, which could destroy agriculture and, at the same time as having the digeris and the early faurian River, millions more refugees fled to Europe.
Under this unprecedented pressure
The right party may be in power throughout the continent, and the EU may break down as each country blocks its borders.
Since the Trump era, NATO has suffered a "serious crisis" that could simply collapse, creating a strategic vacuum that will eventually allow Russia to take over Ukraine and the Baltic states.
As tensions on both sides of the Atlantic intensify, the United StatesN.
Could be a great-
The deadlock in power in the Security Council and the growing accusations about the role of its High Commissioner for Refugees.
Hit by other climate and similar crises
Changing the hot spot, the core international cooperation of the world order in Washington will disappear completely in the past 90 years, leaving a legacy even less conspicuous than the Berlin Wall in Midtown Manhattan.
As Washington's global influence weakens and the world order weakens, Beijing is trying to build a system of inheritance that is very different from what it is now.
Most fundamentally, China placed human rights under the overall vision of expanding state sovereignty and strongly rejected foreign criticism of China's treatment of Tibetan and Uighur ethnic minorities, just as it ignored the same serious domestic violations in countries such as North Korea and the Philippines.
In fact, if climate change does trigger massive immigration, then China's nationalism, as well as its implicit hostility to the rights of refugees, could be more acceptable in the future than Washington's dream of international cooperation, in the era of the Great Wall of Donald Trump, international cooperation has begun to disappear from people's eyes.
In a clearly ironic twist, a rising China has long ignored
The long term principle of the high seas is now under US sanctionsN.
On the contrary, by claiming that the adjacent sea was its sovereign territory, the Convention effectively restored their Klaus Ben to the power of the Empire.
When the former standing Arbitration Court of the World Court unanimously rejected its claim to the South China Sea on 2016, Beijing insisted that the ruling was "naturally invalid" and would not affect its "territorial sovereignty" over the entire ocean ".
Not only has Beijing expanded its sovereignty over the high seas in this way, it has also demonstrated its contempt for the international rule of law, an important part of Washington's world order.
More broadly, Beijing is building an alternative international system that is completely different from existing institutions.
As a counter to NATO's extreme in the western part of Eurasia, China joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2001, a security and economic group due to the addition of Russia and other countries, the group weights India and Pakistan to Eurasia.
In contrast to the World Bank, Beijing established the Asian Infrastructure Development Bank in 2016, quickly attracting 70 Member States with a total capital of $100 billion. Almost half the size of the World Bank.
Most importantly, China's $1.
The Belt and Road Initiative is 10 times the size of the United States. S.
Marshall plans to rebuild a devastated Europe after World War II and is now trying to raise up to $8 trillion in supporting funds for 1,700 projects that could be completed within a decade, 76 countries across Africa and Eurasia, half of all human beings, have become an integrated commercial infrastructure.
By abandoning the current ideals of human rights and the rule of law, such a future world order may be subject to the advantages of business and the original reality of the country's self-Politicsinterest.
Just as Beijing has effectively restored the 1455 principle, its diplomacy will also be instilled in itself.
Strengthen the spirit of the 1885 Berlin conference that once divided Africa.
China's Communist ideals may herald human progress, but in a historically disturbing irony, the world order that Beijing is forming seems more likely to set back the arc of the moral universe.
Of course, on this planet, the country's 2100-square-meter agricultural hub, the North China Plain, with 0. 4 billion inhabitants, has an unbearable heat wave and Shanghai, the main coastal commercial city, it may become impossible to live under water (
Same for other major coastal cities)
Who knows what the next world order will look like?
Without some control of climate change, it is possible to create a new, forever catastrophic planet on which the term "order" may lose its traditional meaning. Alfred W.
Mcculatomdispatchreglar, Professor of History, University of Wisconsin, HarringtonMadison.
He is the author of heroin politics: the CIA's collusion in the global drug trade.
Explore the classic books of the combination of illegal drugs and secret actions for more than 50 years, as well as the books recently published in the shadow of the American Century: The Rise and Decline of the United StatesS. Global Power(Dispatch Books).
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