The U. S.
The recovery of the dollar was driven by smoke.
Wall Street strategists said the brief squeeze that triggered the dollar's fastest rise in 18 months had disappeared, warning that the dollar's bearish situation was intensifying: domestic inflation was negligible, overseas economic flexibility and potential escalation of trade tensions.
For now, the horizontal volatility of the US dollar spot index last week is called a "respite", after three weeks, the US dollar spot index soared more than 3%.
This is the biggest gain since President Donald Trump won the election in November 2016.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.
2% so far this week. U. S.
Inflation did not accelerate in April, prompting the market to press the pause button ". S.
According to Mark McCormick, Toronto's head of foreign exchange strategy for North America, the dollar rose --Dominion Bank.
"The simple fact is that the positioning and valuation gap that has emerged since the beginning of this year will take three weeks to unravel, highlighting how sensitive the rebound is to the new market (disappointing)
He wrote in a report on Monday.
"The global economy has been growing well and has contained US economic growth. S.
Real interest rates reinforce our expectations that the recent surge is nothing more than a positioning crunch.
"Any rise in the dollar from here should come at a slower pace, and strategists estimate that the spot index of the dollar rose by about 94, he said, he expects a break in the second half of 2018 to be less than 90.
Join a bearish rant from ING Groep NV and Morgan Stanley in this chorus.
The Dutch bank agreed that the short squeeze in life was a direct reason for the dollar's lucky streak and suggested that the euro had bottomed out against the euro. Incoming U. S.
The data is unlikely to reprice hawkish monetary expectations, which will put the United States in trouble. S.
Strategist led by Chris Turner said in a May 11 report: "Unlike the more attractive" cone tank "in 2013 ---
There are signs of this vicious cycle"-of higher U. S.
Rising interest rates and the dollar-
"It will probably be over.
The dollar could benefit from a relatively strong US. S.
According to Morgan Stanley strategists, the data and China's tightening of monetary policy have been longer.
But it was only a cyclical rebound in the long bear market that began in January 2017, as the deficit exacerbated the funding gap for currency depreciation. “The U. S.
The dollar may again face sales pressure due to US reasonsS.
Hans Redeker, head of global FX strategy at Morgan Stanley, and his team wrote in a recent report.
"Over time, the temporary strength of the dollar into the summer should disappear --
Long-term bear market trends
DXY is expected to reach 81 by the end of the year2019.
Alvin Tan, director of monetary strategy at Societe Generale SA, observed that the bond market did not confirm the central bank's statement. S.
The dollar's recovery has benefited from better growth and inflation prospects.
"The flat yield curve is essentially neither bullish nor bearish on the dollar, but it certainly contradicts expectations in the US. S.
He wrote in a note to the client on Monday.
Strategists suggest that if the dollar reaches 110 against the yen, the target is 104.
Global head of G10 foreign company Bilal Hafeez
Nomura's foreign exchange strategy is also enjoying the opportunity brought about by the recent appreciation of the world's reserve currency, betting on its weakness against the yen.
In his view, the market is wrongly estimating the risk of an escalating trade war, which provides information on this call for a "high" belief.
Even the firm dollar bulls are hard to get close to it-term prospects.
"We don't believe in the third one.
Despite the loss of 2017, the biggest dollar rise since the end of the Bretton Woods conference has ended, "said Mark Chandler, head of monetary strategy for the Brown brothers Hariman.
Who expects policy disagreements between the Federal Reserve and other major global central banks to once again become a positive driver of US economic growthS. currency.
But he wrote on Monday that the rebound has stretched "technical indicators" and now the dollar's "respite" has begun.
He expects the spot index to fall to 91. 3 to 91.
Over the next few days, the euro returned to its psychological level of 1. 20.
One opposite view comes from the other end: Steven Barrow, chief FX strategist at Standard Bank, a structural bull market for the euro that he believes the single currency is in the future
"The dollar is helped by the reduction of positions ---
The market still looks short. -
In terms of the dichotomy between tax cuts and the current United States, repatriation is mobileS.
"European economic data," he said.